The Covid Eclipse - Pandemic

The Covid Eclipse

अंत या आरंभ 

चलिये आज बात करते है उस समस्या के बारे में जिससे धरती पर हर मानव त्रस्त है | 

Disclaimer: The blog page has content below that is purely rational and based on ontological reasoning. References are made to back the facts and statements wherever necessary.

Here's your blogger, Kieron again with a new weekend blog. Have Fun Reading!

Is Coronavirus really a problem?

Lets's discuss the present everyday thoughts before opening the optimistic window.

• The exponential rise in cases day by day.
• Proven vaccine for sale is no where in near future.
• Unemployment
• Hunger deaths
• High chance of recession and depression.
• Limited medical facilities.
• Uneasy access to medical facilities for under privileged.

Before continuing reading, I would suggest you watch this video

Source: yebook (YouTube Channel)

Yes, there's a solution!

There were many outbreaks like SARS, MERS, Spanish Flue, Ebola but none like this. As in this COVID 19, the country of origin deliberately covered up the story having access to such an extent that it enslaved, the world's supreme health organisation WHO.

The biggest solution for any outbreak is the early identification and control measures, none of which Chinese government allowed. So, here we failed.

Since we failed to stop the spread, we have to decelerate the spread to zero as soon as possible.

The steps taken by various governments across the world are almost common.

Imposing nationwide lock-down, Testing at war footing pace, quarantining suspected people, isolating infected people and treating them, regulations to maintain 6 ft distance. using masks and hand sanitizers

Despite of all these measures infected cases are rising day by day across the world. Let's dig into this matter.

Coronavirus is a newly detected virus with capability of human to human transmission.

It has mortality rate of around 3% which is way lower than dengue (40%). But do really 3 in 100 infected with Covid die.

Answer is: No

As of now 80% cases are asymptomatic. There are people who have been infected with coronavirus and recovered due to self immunity, they knew only when antibodies were found in their blood during random covid tests. Even the not so healthy person  (not having any chronic disease) is guaranteed to be recovered with little medication. For Example: My native town Yavatmal had 115 cases out of which 100 recovered. But this is not the cases everywhere else. There are 1000s dying everyday. The reason is not categorizing the patients and the media.

The present testing rate is 100000 per day in India. We can't cover a quarter of population in an year. So this is not the solution.

Chronic disease- heart attack, diabetes, hypertension etc.,

Solution:

Categorize the population in red, orange and green people.

RED - elderly above 75, elderly above 60 (with chronic disease), infants.

ORANGE - BPL (below poverty line) people and homeless people, teenagers and below 10, normal people with no chronic disease

GREEN - Healthy people with good immune system. people who can afford treatment in private hospitals.

GREEN must be given the least priority, as they might book ICU even for mild symptoms due to fear spread by media. And healthy people don't have to much worry about but have to take care that they don't become carrier and super spreader.

ORANGE - These category mainly has people that provide the man power for industries and the next generation. So, this is important.

RED - I would say, better quarantining and following the guidelines would protect more than treatment for this category. RED shouldn't be given the first priority as they are not the backbone of the economy but as it helps in reduce the fear by showing the actual mortality rate category wise.

To know better How Covid will End?

We have to look back at the end of the Spanish Flue (1918-1920) that killed 50 million people.

It ended due to community immunity.

Community immunity is also in other words known as Herd Immunity.

Let's understand with an example:

Suppose tomorrow the covid vaccine is available for 1 crore people. And the lab decides to distribute randomly to those who buy, the spread won't stop. To effectively stop the spread within days, they have to provide vaccine to every 700th person on the planet (as per 7 billion global population). 

Since in a month global cases would rise over 1 crore, in case every 700th person gets infected and recovers, cases won't rise further. This is Herd Immunity.

Recovered people act as barrier to the spread and graph goes flat and down. As India's curve hasn't flattened yet. There is a peak awaiting of around 15-20 lakh cases (probably) in India by mid August 2020 before flattening and going down. Refer the graph below. 

Source: abc.net.au

We shouldn't trigger the second wave as what people during spanish flue did after lockdown ended by partying, gathering and ceremonies.

Amazing Fact: Spanish Flue didn't originate in Spain, but in USA.